The year 2024 was a pivotal one in the trajectory of global
transformation, witnessing major developments in the international
system. Considering these developments, the Faculty of Economics and
Political Science held a seminar to discuss the Arab Strategic
Report, issued by the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic
Studies in collaboration with the faculty, on Tuesday, April 29,
2025.
The seminar began with an opening session at 9:30 a.m., with
welcoming remarks by Dr. Amany Masoud, Head of the Political Science
Department at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science; Dr.
Ayman Abdel Wahab, Director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and
Strategic Studies; the Dean of the Faculty of Economics and
Political Science; and finally, the Vice Dean for Community Service
and Environmental Development.
The first session of the seminar began at 10:00 a.m. and was titled:
“The International System... Between American Centrality and the
Shift of the Center of Gravity Toward East Asia.” It was chaired by
Prof. Dr. Hassan Nafaa and featured Dr. Gamal Abdel Gawad, Dr.
Raghda El Bahey, and Dr. Heidi Kars as speakers. The session
concluded with some discussions between the speakers and attendees.
Prof. Dr. Hassan Nafaa began by thanking Dr. Amany Masoud for
inviting him to the seminar, stressing the importance of discussing
this report as a wake-up call due to its value to the faculty, the
center, and what it offers researchers and students. He then
outlined the topics presented in the report for discussion: firstly,
the crisis of the decline of the liberal order established after
World War II, which passed through several phases; secondly, the
U.S. elections as a turning point and the implications of Trump’s
re-election on American politics; thirdly, conflictual issues such
as the Russia-Ukraine war; and fourthly, continental issues
discussing matters such as the rise of the far-right in Europe.
Prof. Nafaa then handed the floor to Dr. Gamal Abdel Gawad, noting
his expertise in international relations. Dr. Abdel Gawad spoke
about the crisis of the international order, explaining that what he
had learned from theories does not clearly explain current events,
describing it as a “mismatch” or likening it to the theory of “black
swans.” He emphasized that the key skill today is the ability to
deduce and seek innovative solutions, with the main burden falling
on the new generation. He argued that we should not impose rigid
rules in political science but rather derive them and observe and
explain what happens in our world. International relations as a
discipline are rooted in the liberal order—a mix of liberal values
and systems including individual freedom, free trade, abolition of
slavery, etc.—which flourished after World War II and the Cold War
and was revived with the U.S. and Britain’s inheritance of the
Middle East and its division into states. Now, this order is under
immense pressure in its ideological core in recent years, and its
future is uncertain. This is evident in three dimensions: first, a
shift in the power structure from Europe to China—the third-largest
economy and largest industrial power with rapid technological
advancement, which is no longer exclusive to the West. There is a
transfer of power centers, a process of decline and rise. What's new
is that this transfer from Western power to another power raises the
question: are we moving toward a globalization of multiple blocs or
a multipolar world? There has also been a development in the
fluidity of money, goods, people, and ideas—something the world
witnessed with clear cooperation after the Cold War. There has been
a shift from cooperative to conflictual relations (more
trade-related now—customs tariffs). Human rights, democracy, and
liberal principles no longer dominate the scene, especially with the
rise of the far-right across the West, leading to a change in
ideological character. But where will this situation take us? Most
likely, to complete instability.
Next, Dr. Raghda El Bahey spoke, explaining that the Arab Strategic
Report is a distinguished and precise document that offers accurate
monitoring and analysis of global events at the international,
regional, and even national (Egyptian) levels throughout 2024, with
clear trends on which the future can be anticipated. She began by
discussing the shift of civilizational precedence toward East Asia,
noting that its roots go back to the late 20th century with the
emergence of the concept of the Asian Century. This concept was
built on several facts, including economic rise and engines of
labor, production, and innovation in China, followed by India. The
strength of the Asian continent lies in its economy. It’s not just
about a shift in civilizational primacy to the East, but about
economic factors. Politically, the Asian continent has a complex and
non-homogeneous political environment, ranging from democracies in
Japan and South Korea to authoritarian regimes in neighboring
countries facing real challenges in poverty and social inequality.
Thus, she argued, there is more than one Asian Century. Asia is
undergoing demographic and economic transformations that could
hinder its role, such as a declining labor force due to aging
populations, leading to increasing pressure on social security
systems. In contrast, Asia also faces security and geopolitical
challenges, notably tensions in the South China Sea and the
potential conflict between China and Taiwan, which could reshape
strategic balances on the continent. Despite the rise of major
powers like India and Brazil, and partial emergence of Africa,
complete Asian dominance remains questionable. The international
system is not heading toward Asian unipolarity but rather toward
multipolarity, where powers like Western Europe and the U.S.
continue to maintain leadership roles politically, economically, and
militarily.
There is ongoing debate about whether the liberal international
order is in its death throes or merely facing a temporary crisis
from which it can recover. It still enjoys strong institutional
roots, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank,
in addition to its cultural component manifested in globalization
and American cultural dominance—something Asian powers have yet to
offer a complete alternative to. She concluded her remarks by
stating that the international system is in a state of intellectual
and analytical fluidity. It is possible to infer the continuation of
American hegemony just as it is possible to infer its decline. On
one hand, the U.S. still possesses the world’s most powerful
military and greatest cultural influence. On the other, signs of its
retreat are evident—foreign conflicts, growing isolationist
tendencies domestically, and discussions about the end of the
American century. The world stands at a crossroads between East and
West, where the features of a new international system are taking
shape. Wars such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or a potential
China-Taiwan confrontation may accelerate this transformation.
However, the shape of this system, its number of poles, and the time
of its full emergence remain unclear.
Dr. Heidi Kars then took the floor, affirming the significant value
of the strategic report, which represents a qualitative addition to
the Arab library as it comprehensively monitors international,
regional, and local interactions. She focused her intervention on
three main axes within the chapter on international interactions.
First, systemic transformations in the international order: she
discussed ongoing structural shifts in the global system, noting
that the world is going through a transitional phase marked by
instability and uncertainty. The system is no longer clearly bipolar
nor definitively multipolar, and there is an erosion of the
foundations upon which Western hegemony was built. Although rising
powers, especially China, were previously seen as the main
challenge, the paradox now lies in the fact that the biggest threat
to the liberal order may come from within itself—specifically from
within the United States due to internal economic and political
changes.
Second, the impact of transformation on the Global South: Dr. Kars
questioned whether the Global South is merely a recipient of these
changes or if it plays an active role. She used Africa as an
example, noting the intense international competition over the
continent from major powers such as China and Russia, as well as
regional powers like Turkey and the Gulf states. Despite this, some
African countries have begun to play flexible and negotiated roles,
such as diversifying international partnerships and avoiding
dependence on a single actor.
Third, epistemological structuring in the field of international
relations: she pointed out the centrality of Western thought in the
discipline of international relations, where Western—particularly
American and European—theorizing dominates the field. However, there
have been attempts by researchers from the Global South to present
theoretical alternatives that move away from Western centrism and
address real issues that traditional Western literature cannot
adequately tackle. This is sometimes referred to as the movement of
decolonizing global knowledge in international relations.
Dr. Kars concluded her remarks by referring to a report from The
Economist magazine stating that the Israeli army is using artificial
intelligence systems to identify its targets in Gaza by analyzing
vast datasets, including communications, satellite imagery,
suspicious activities, and technologies based on facial and voice
recognition. Despite their apparent precision, these technologies
rely on inputs that may be inaccurate, explaining the large number
of civilian casualties. There is growing concern that this method
may become a new “trend” in future wars. This point is essential to
understanding how modern technology has transformed the nature of
warfare in Gaza and should have been included under the section on
"technological and military developments."
At the end of this fruitful session, Prof. Dr. Hassan Nafaa
concluded by speaking about the most prominent issues discussed in
the annual strategic report, notably the rapid collapse of
international institutions established after World War II, which had
formed the foundation of the system of international justice and
legitimacy—such as the International Court of Justice and the
International Criminal Court. The moral and legal role that Western
powers had claimed, particularly in protecting human rights, has
regressed, as these values have either been targeted or neglected in
practical reality. This erosion in the performance of institutions
raises fundamental questions about the future of the international
system: Is it still possible to reform the United Nations system,
especially the Security Council, despite its rigidity and inability
to adapt to the new balance of power? Or does reality dictate the
need to consider the establishment of an alternative global
order—something that usually only happens after major shocks like
world wars?
Following this, the second session began under the title “The
Regional System… Shrinking Axis of Resistance and Disruption in
Normalization Calculations,” chaired by and with speakers Dr. Moataz
Salama, Prof. Dr. Nevine Mosaad, Dr. Mohamed El-Sayed Idris, and Dr.
Ali Galal Maouad.
Dr. Moataz Salama began by thanking and welcoming
his colleagues and Prof. Dr. Ahmed Youssef. He then discussed the
Arab and Middle Eastern systems and the interactions between them,
focusing on developments in 2024. He pointed out that the “Arab”
section of the report covered numerous issues, but the topic of the
“Axis of Resistance and the Disruption of Normalization
Calculations” was chosen as the focus, without limiting or
diminishing the importance of other topics.
The Arab system was divided into three parts. The first part
addressed issues of the Arab system, most notably: from the “Al-Aqsa
Flood” to the “Northern Flood,” indicating the symbolic beginning
and end of a pivotal year in the region. It also analyzed the
reality of chronic Arab crises that have become a stable deadlock
without full settlements—such as in Yemen, Libya, Sudan, and
Lebanon—posing a threat to national unity.
The second part focused on the transformation of rules of
engagement, highlighting the increasing Israeli violence in Gaza,
excessive deterrent force, and the long war, along with the
confusion in decision-making processes within Israel and the absence
of a cohesive collective mindset. The report also discussed the
decline of non-state groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, raising
questions about whether this decline is tactical or a strategic
fading. It reviewed the Lebanese scene from limited engagement to
open war.
The third part of the report tackled the internal Israeli conflicts,
noting that all parties are competing from a right-wing platform,
reflecting the narrowness of the political spectrum there. It also
discussed Hamas’ position in power despite the war and its public
conflict with the Palestinian Authority, raising questions about the
reality of joint Palestinian action.
The Arab section concluded by analyzing the Gulf Cooperation Council
countries’ positions on normalization, highlighting the divergence
among Gulf stances and the national calculation differences between
them, and the upcoming Arab Summit’s internal divisions. It raised
the question of how topics and solutions to Arab regional conflicts
can be presented amid ambiguous Arab roles and a dysfunctional Arab
state.
Prof. Dr. Nevine Mosaad then spoke, focusing on several
observations. First, despite the report’s importance and courage in
addressing thorny issues, its language and terminology are
difficult—especially for those outside the academic field. Second,
she objected to excluding the Hamas/Israel model from examples of
asymmetric wars and rejected the idea that Israeli strikes and
spatial control undermine decentralization. She considered that what
happened does not contradict the evolution of asymmetric warfare but
rather reflects a shift in Israeli strategy from spatial
confrontation to targeting the idea and spirit.
Third, she discussed the term “parallel non-state actors,” calling
for clarification of the difference between this and “armed actors.”
She gave the example of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as an
unarmed actor yet a central political player, as well as governments
that run the state during times of political weakness.
Fourth, she rejected the idea that Iran is retreating from its
regional project, considering that the imperial nature of Iran’s
project does not allow for inward withdrawal; rather, it is a
long-term, trans-political-systems project.
Fifth, she addressed the issue of proxy wars, noting that the
report’s analysis of the Houthis’ evolution from a tool to a central
actor requires understanding the actor’s own motivation development,
especially as they moved from a tool to a representative of a
popular sector.
Lastly, she emphasized the importance of analyzing the performance
of the official Arab system, especially in central issues such as
Palestine and Syria, pointing to weak outcomes despite official
statements.
Then Dr. Mohamed El-Sayed Idris spoke about the Arab and Middle
Eastern systems and their interactions, and the developments of
2024. He referred to the G20 Summit in Mumbai, where a new Middle
East project was proposed, followed by the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” which
proved the Palestinian people’s ability to resist, toppling Zionist
ideology and the West as a whole. Despite this, the Arab system did
not stand with the Palestinian cause; some countries fund the
Zionist entity, others are helpless, while the Palestinian people
endured for several months.
These developments revealed the Axis of Resistance extending from
Iran to Hezbollah and Yemen, creating an imbalance in power. This
coincided with severe strikes against Hezbollah and the emergence of
ISIS in Syria under American-agenda motives (noting that Syria in
the past refused to betray Hezbollah or normalize with Israel).
He mentioned the previously ambiguous Turkish role, which has found
strength in Syria amid increasing Israeli power. We are now during
dangerous developments, accompanied by many questions about the Arab
system’s stance if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel over the
nuclear issue. Considering these ambiguous Arab roles, settlements
appear to be halfway measures.
The session concluded with Dr. Ali Galal Maouad, who explained the
challenges researchers face in this context, citing a previous
experience related to Turkey to emphasize the difficulty of keeping
pace with these changes.
The report addresses Turkey’s notable presence across different
axes, pointing to its political, economic, and military roles in
several regional issues such as Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, and
Palestine, with notes on the potential to focus more on files like
Somalia.
The report highlights the dual image of Turkey’s roles—positive as a
cooperative actor and negative as a source of threat—while pointing
to possible contradictions due to the multiple contributors to the
report. Dr. Galal reflected on the nature of this divergence,
attributing it to the weakness of the Arab system, the fluidity of
regional interactions, and the differing national interests among
Arab countries, alongside the increasing and continuing debate over
Turkey’s role.